2008 Olympic results
At publication, 360 days remain until the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Slightly less than a year, but still a substantial interval; we use that distance to add intrigue to this forecast...
At publication, 360 days remain until the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Slightly less than a year, but still a substantial interval, which we will use to add intrigue to the forecast in this article, launching a new section devoted to the 2008 Beijing Games. We quote a study reviewing China’s participation in the last three Olympics, in which it placed fourth, third and second, and using that experience to calculate its likely ranking in 2008.
If the 2008 Games had taken place in August 2007, Chinese athletes would have won 27 gold medals and placed second behind the United States with 33. These are the conclusions of economics professor Daniel Johnson, who successfully predicted the US team’s Athens performance and missed Germany’s triumph in Turin by just one medal.
Despite his past forecasting success, Professor Johnson himself says, «off the record», that China will probably finish first. His statistical research takes account of many factors, including per-capita income, population, climate and political system. The study cited here used 2006 data, yielding the following picture.
«Any assessment of China has always been extremely difficult. Historically, population data have been hard to obtain, as have accurate income figures. It is clear, however, that China’s Olympic team is remedying its previous shortage of track-and-field athletes by focusing on athletics, the largest collection of sporting disciplines. These are precisely the reasons we had to conduct a separate study of China’s likely 2008 results. We anticipate substantial revisions to these figures very soon, as China continues to surprise the world with its achievements.»
«Home advantage,» Johnson continues, «was also incorporated using historical data. We found that Summer Olympics host teams win roughly 25 more medals than they would abroad, about 12 of them gold.»
If the 2008 Games had taken place in August 2007, Chinese athletes would have won 27 gold medals and placed second behind the United States with 33. These are the conclusions of economics professor Daniel Johnson, who successfully predicted the US team’s Athens performance and missed Germany’s triumph in Turin by just one medal.
Despite his past forecasting success, Professor Johnson himself says, «off the record», that China will probably finish first. His statistical research takes account of many factors, including per-capita income, population, climate and political system. The study cited here used 2006 data, yielding the following picture.
«Any assessment of China has always been extremely difficult. Historically, population data have been hard to obtain, as have accurate income figures. It is clear, however, that China’s Olympic team is remedying its previous shortage of track-and-field athletes by focusing on athletics, the largest collection of sporting disciplines. These are precisely the reasons we had to conduct a separate study of China’s likely 2008 results. We anticipate substantial revisions to these figures very soon, as China continues to surprise the world with its achievements.»
«Home advantage,» Johnson continues, «was also incorporated using historical data. We found that Summer Olympics host teams win roughly 25 more medals than they would abroad, about 12 of them gold.»
| Place | Country | Gold medals |
| 1 | USA | 33 |
| 2 | China | 27 |
| 3 | Germany | 18 |
| 4 | Russia | 16 |
| 5 | Hungary | 10 |
| 6 | Italy | 8 |
| 7 | South Korea, Poland, Bulgaria | 6 |
| 8 | Netherlands | 5 |
Translation by Stanislav Terentyev
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